Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 13 – Detroit Lions 0

(8:25) 7-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to DET 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-29-H.Miller.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.94 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model