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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 47

Cleveland Browns 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 7-J.Gillan punts 28 yards to DET 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.76 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model