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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 47

Detroit Lions 7 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 3-J.Fox punts 32 yards to CLE 15, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-18-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.79 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model