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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 55

Detroit Lions 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to CLE 12, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-D.Felton to CLE 24 for 12 yards (38-C.Moore, 44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.43 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP