Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 73

Detroit Lions 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

(13:57) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to CLE 33, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-D.Felton MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.34 EP
60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model