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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2021-11-21 · 16:25 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 💨 Windy Spread 2.5 O/U 56.0

Win Probability

DAL
54.1%
KC
45.9%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph
  • QB edge to DAL: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.197 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.260 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
KC 23
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

DAL

Kelvin Joseph CB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Tyron Smith T Questionable Ankle
Nahshon Wright CB Questionable Hamstring

KC

Lucas Niang T Out Ribs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB Questionable Knee
Armani Watts S Questionable Illness
L'Jarius Sneed CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 9
–
KC 19

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:07 TD KC (10:07) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 87-T.Kelce. 87-T.Kelce up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 07:59 FG KC (7:59) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DAL 0 – KC 9
  • Q1 02:54 FG DAL (2:54) 2-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – KC 9
  • Q2 14:13 TD KC (14:13) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-25-C.Edwards-Helaire, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DAL 3 – KC 15
  • Q3 09:24 FG DAL (9:24) 2-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 6 – KC 16
  • Q3 02:42 FG KC (2:42) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DAL 6 – KC 19
  • Q4 12:57 FG DAL (12:57) 2-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 9 – KC 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (14:01) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to KC 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-53-F.Bernard.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

    (7:59) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (2:54) 2-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:44) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to KC 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-53-F.Bernard.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:28) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to DAL 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 14 for no gain (82-D.Fountain).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (4:30) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to KC 33, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:51) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to DAL 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 26 for 7 yards (26-C.Lammons).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 15 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:50) 5-B.Anger punts 34 yards to KC 45, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. Penalty on KC-27-R.Fenton, Taunting, offsetting. Penalty on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Face Mask (15 Yards), offsetting.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%

    (9:24) 2-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:52) 5-T.Townsend punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (5:56) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to KC 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 13 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 60%

    (2:42) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 19 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 72%

    (12:57) 2-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 65%

    (9:49) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:06) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to KC 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-M.Hughes to KC 14 for 9 yards (87-J.Sprinkle).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 11 at the 34 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 62%

    (2:45) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker punts 31 yards to DAL 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-5-T.Townsend.