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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to KC 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.12 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP