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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 35

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.52 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model