4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 12

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 2-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP