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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to KC 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-53-F.Bernard.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.63 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP