4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 54

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to KC 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-53-F.Bernard.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.59 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP