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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 19 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 2-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.05 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model