Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CHI offense: -0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- CHI defense: +0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- QB edge to CHI: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.216 vs Tyler Huntley (BAL) -0.384 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Tyler Huntley in place of Lamar Jackson)
- BAL offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- CHI on 3 more days rest than BAL
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 11
BAL
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 02:15 FG BAL (2:15) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – CHI 0
- Q2 00:05 FG BAL (:05) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 6 – CHI 0
- Q3 08:12 TD CHI (8:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 11-D.Mooney for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CHI 6
- Q4 03:45 FG BAL (3:45) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 9 – CHI 7
- Q4 01:48 TD CHI (1:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 84-M.Goodwin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-99-O.Oweh, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. BAL 9 – CHI 13
- Q4 00:25 TD BAL (:25) (Shotgun) 33-D.Freeman left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 15 – CHI 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BAL 4th & 13 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%
(11:07) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to CHI 14, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-11-J.Proche.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CHI 4th & 11 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%
(6:03) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 BAL 4th & 16 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(2:05) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CHI 20, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-41-A.Levine.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(1:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to BAL 24, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 31 for 7 yards (23-M.Christian).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 41%
(11:15) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 17Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 93%
(2:15) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(1:17) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to BAL 24, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 36 for 12 yards (35-R.Nall).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%
(:42) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley left tackle to CHI 35 for 8 yards (23-M.Christian).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 29%
(11:29) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to BAL 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BAL 4th & 12 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 22%
(8:55) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to CHI 17, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(6:29) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-J.Grant to CHI 20 for 4 yards (85-E.Tomlinson, 57-K.Welch).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(5:16) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to BAL 14, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-20-D.Shelley.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 24%
(12:30) (Shotgun) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 32-D.Montgomery. 32-D.Montgomery right guard to CHI 49 for no gain (92-J.Madubuike). Penalty on CHI-68-J.Daniels, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(7:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to CHI 45, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-59-C.Marsh. CHI-20-D.Shelley was injured during the play. He is Out. Punt was tipped by 45-J.Ferguson
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Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 28 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 80%
(3:45) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 54 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69%
(2:42) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 11-D.Mooney to BAL 48 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 49 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 29%
(1:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 84-M.Goodwin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-99-O.Oweh, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
See the full breakdown →
