BAL @ CHI — 4th & Data

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HC John Harbaugh

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HC Matt Nagy

Sunday 2021-11-21 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread -5.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

BAL

49.6%

CHI

50.4%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CHI offense: -0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
BAL offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
QB edge to CHI: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.216 vs Tyler Huntley (BAL) -0.384 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Tyler Huntley in place of Lamar Jackson)
CHI defense: +0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
CHI on 3 more days rest than BAL

Predicted Final Score

BAL 20

–

CHI 21

Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

BAL

Miles Boykin WR Out Finger

Pernell McPhee LB Out Knee

Brandon Williams DT Out Shoulder

Anthony Averett CB Questionable Thigh

Cedric Ogbuehi T Questionable Thigh

Kristian Welch LB Questionable Foot

Nick Boyle TE Questionable Knee

Lamar Jackson QB Questionable Illness

Marquise Brown WR Questionable Thigh

Devin Duvernay WR Questionable Knee

Patrick Mekari T Questionable Ankle

Latavius Murray RB Questionable Ankle

Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Hip

Tavon Young CB Questionable Foot

CHI

Akiem Hicks DT Out Ankle

Allen Robinson WR Doubtful Hamstring

Damien Williams RB Doubtful Calf

Eddie Jackson S Questionable Hamstring

Elijah Wilkinson T Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 16

–

CHI 13

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 02:15 FG BAL (2:15) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – CHI 0
Q2 00:05 FG BAL (:05) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 6 – CHI 0
Q3 08:12 TD CHI (8:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 11-D.Mooney for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CHI 6
Q4 03:45 FG BAL (3:45) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 9 – CHI 7
Q4 01:48 TD CHI (1:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 84-M.Goodwin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-99-O.Oweh, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. BAL 9 – CHI 13
Q4 00:25 TD BAL (:25) (Shotgun) 33-D.Freeman left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 15 – CHI 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 BAL 4th & 13 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%

(11:07) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to CHI 14, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-11-J.Proche.
Q1 CHI 4th & 11 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%

(6:03) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q1 BAL 4th & 16 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(2:05) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CHI 20, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-41-A.Levine.
Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(1:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to BAL 24, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 31 for 7 yards (23-M.Christian).
Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 41%

(11:15) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 17

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 93%

(2:15) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(1:17) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to BAL 24, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 36 for 12 yards (35-R.Nall).
Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 43

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%

(:42) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley left tackle to CHI 35 for 8 yards (23-M.Christian).
Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 29%

(11:29) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to BAL 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q3 BAL 4th & 12 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 22%

(8:55) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to CHI 17, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.
Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52%

(6:29) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-J.Grant to CHI 20 for 4 yards (85-E.Tomlinson, 57-K.Welch).
Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(5:16) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to BAL 14, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-20-D.Shelley.
Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 51

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 24%

(12:30) (Shotgun) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 32-D.Montgomery. 32-D.Montgomery right guard to CHI 49 for no gain (92-J.Madubuike). Penalty on CHI-68-J.Daniels, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(7:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to CHI 45, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-59-C.Marsh. CHI-20-D.Shelley was injured during the play. He is Out. Punt was tipped by 45-J.Ferguson
Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 28 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51% p(FG) 80%

(3:45) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 54 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69%

(2:42) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 11-D.Mooney to BAL 48 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 49 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 29%

(1:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 84-M.Goodwin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-99-O.Oweh, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.