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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 51

Chicago Bears 7 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(12:30) (Shotgun) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 32-D.Montgomery. 32-D.Montgomery right guard to CHI 49 for no gain (92-J.Madubuike). Penalty on CHI-68-J.Daniels, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.54 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 51, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model