Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Chicago Bears 0

(2:05) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CHI 20, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-41-A.Levine.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model