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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.01 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model