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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 17

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.87 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP