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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-J.Grant to CHI 20 for 4 yards (85-E.Tomlinson, 57-K.Welch).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.16 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model