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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 22

Chicago Bears 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.27 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model