Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LA offense: +0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- SF offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- SF defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- QB edge to LA: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.163 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.284 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 10
LA
SF
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:59 TD SF (1:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – SF 6
- Q1 00:58 TD SF (:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at LA 27. 1-J.Ward for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – SF 13
- Q2 13:20 TD LA (13:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – SF 14
- Q2 05:30 TD SF (5:30) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – SF 20
- Q3 04:43 FG SF (4:43) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. LA 7 – SF 24
- Q4 11:15 TD SF (11:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at LA 29. 29-YAC LA 7 – SF 30
- Q4 03:52 FG LA (3:52) 8-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – SF 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 17Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%
(:18) (Field Goal formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 86-K.Blanton to SF 15 for 2 yards (93-D.Jones) [29-T.Hufanga]. Caught at SF 21. 6-YAC
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Q3 SF 4th & 11 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:32) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to LA 20, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 17-J.Koski.
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Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(10:59) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to SF 37, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.
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Q3 SF 4th & 14 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 76%
(4:43) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(3:49) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to SF 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.
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Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(:59) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to LA 9, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.
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Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to SF 44, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.
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Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 59%
(11:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at LA 29. 29-YAC
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Q4 LA 4th & 11 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%
(6:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 12-V.Jefferson.
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Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(5:08) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to LA 48, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-49-T.Cannon.
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Q4 LA 4th & 19 at the 19 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 92%
(3:52) 8-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
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Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 29 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.52 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 82%
(:30) 25-E.Mitchell left tackle to LA 24 for 5 yards (50-E.Jones).