Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 61

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Los Angeles Rams 7

(12:32) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to LA 20, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 17-J.Koski.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.95 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model