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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to SF 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model