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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 55

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(:59) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to LA 9, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.60 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model