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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 11

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(6:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 12-V.Jefferson.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.29 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model