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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 88

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to SF 44, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.69 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model