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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 17

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(:18) (Field Goal formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 86-K.Blanton to SF 15 for 2 yards (93-D.Jones) [29-T.Hufanga]. Caught at SF 21. 6-YAC

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.56 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP