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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2021-11-07 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

ARI
52.3%
SF
47.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.173 vs Colt McCoy (ARI) -0.111 EPA/dropback (ARI starting Colt McCoy in place of Kyler Murray)
  • SF offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • ARI on 3 more days rest than SF

Predicted Final Score

ARI 25
–
SF 23
Projected margin: ARI by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

ARI

Rashard Lawrence DT Out Calf
Jonathan Ward RB Out Concussion
J.J. Watt DE Out Shoulder
James Wiggins S Out Knee
DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Hamstring
Kyler Murray QB Questionable Ankle
Max Garcia C Questionable Achilles

SF

Maurice Hurst DT Out Calf
Jimmie Ward S Out Quadricep
Dee Ford DE Questionable Back
Elijah Mitchell RB Questionable Rib
Deebo Samuel WR Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 31
–
SF 17

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:13 TD ARI (6:13) 12-C.McCoy at QB. (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – SF 0
  • Q1 00:42 TD ARI (:42) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – SF 0
  • Q2 04:05 FG ARI (4:05) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 17 – SF 0
  • Q2 00:22 TD SF (:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – SF 6
  • Q3 13:44 TD ARI (13:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short right to 6-J.Conner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 47. 47-YAC ARI 23 – SF 7
  • Q3 08:10 TD ARI (8:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-E.Benjamin left guard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 30 – SF 7
  • Q3 05:03 TD SF (5:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 31 – SF 13
  • Q4 08:26 FG SF (8:26) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. ARI 31 – SF 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 14 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 37%

    (12:43) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 34 yards to ARI 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:49) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SF 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 32 for 9 yards (33-A.Hamilton; 45-D.Gardeck).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 15 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:46) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to ARI 20, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (4:05) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:04) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 57 yards to ARI 27, Center-46-T.Pepper. 4-R.Moore to ARI 29 for 2 yards (49-T.Cannon, 27-D.Johnson).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 82%

    (9:15) 12-C.McCoy up the middle to SF 26 for 1 yard (51-A.Al-Shaair, 91-A.Armstead).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (1:19) 14-A.Lee punts 53 yards to SF 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 15 for -2 yards (17-A.Isabella).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 13 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 55%

    (13:08) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 28 yards to ARI 11, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:11) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to SF 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-B.Aiyuk to ARI 36 for 27 yards (31-C.Banjo; 81-D.Daniels).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (8:26) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 20 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 25%

    (3:40) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-64-S.Harlow, Touchback.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 84%

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to SF 23 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner; 95-K.Street).