4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 39

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 31

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 28 yards to ARI 11, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.36 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model