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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 88

Arizona Cardinals 31 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to SF 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-B.Aiyuk to ARI 36 for 27 yards (31-C.Banjo; 81-D.Daniels).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.88 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model