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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 31 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 14-A.Lee punts 53 yards to SF 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 15 for -2 yards (17-A.Isabella).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.29 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP