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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 46

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 34 yards to ARI 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.19 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model