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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 31 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to SF 23 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner; 95-K.Street).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.41 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.45 EP