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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 27

Arizona Cardinals 24 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 12-C.McCoy up the middle to SF 26 for 1 yard (51-A.Al-Shaair, 91-A.Armstead).

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.26 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model