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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2021-10-31 · 16:25 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

TB
61.8%
NO
38.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Jameis Winston (NO) +0.129 vs Tom Brady (TB) +0.265 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TB 25
–
NO 23
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

TB

Antonio Brown WR Out Ankle
Dee Delaney CB Questionable Ankle
Jason Pierre-Paul LB Questionable Shoulder
Lavonte David LB Questionable Ankle
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Ribs
Richard Sherman CB Questionable Hamstring

NO

Taysom Hill QB Out Concussion
Andrus Peat G Out Pectoral
Payton Turner DE Out Calf
Dwayne Washington RB Out Neck
Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Hand
Deonte Harty WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 27
–
NO 36

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:35 TD TB (8:35) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 4, YAC 8 TB 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 02:46 TD NO (2:46) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep left to 10-T.Smith for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-D.White]. Pass 16, YAC 0 TB 7 – NO 6
  • Q2 02:24 FG NO (2:24) 6-B.Johnson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. TB 7 – NO 10
  • Q2 00:30 TD NO (:30) 76-C.Throckmorton reported in as eligible. 15-T.Siemian pass short left to 40-A.Armah for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 0, YAC 1 TB 7 – NO 16
  • Q3 09:07 TD NO (9:07) 41-A.Kamara left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – NO 22
  • Q3 05:39 TD TB (5:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 25-G.Bernard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 5 TB 13 – NO 23
  • Q3 01:22 TD TB (1:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Pass 39, YAC 2 TB 20 – NO 23
  • Q4 08:34 FG NO (8:34) 6-B.Johnson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. TB 21 – NO 26
  • Q4 05:52 TD TB (5:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Grayson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 35, YAC 15 TB 27 – NO 26
  • Q4 01:44 FG NO (1:44) 6-B.Johnson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. TB 27 – NO 29
  • Q4 01:36 TD NO (1:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at TB 40. 26-P.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 27 – NO 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (13:44) 8-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to NO 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:01) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 44 for no gain (54-L.David).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 59%

    (13:28) 8-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to NO 8, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:35) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to TB 23, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 23 for no gain (48-J.Gray). PENALTY on TB-9-J.Tryon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 23.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (2:24) 6-B.Johnson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 76%

    (12:18) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short left to 11-D.Harris to TB 25 for 7 yards (43-R.Cockrell) [31-A.Winfield]. Pass 7, YAC 0

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (9:07) 41-A.Kamara left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 16 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:35) 4-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to TB 28, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 31 for 3 yards (53-Z.Baun).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:27) 4-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to TB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 19 for 11 yards (17-K.White).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:20) 8-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NO 22, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-D.Harris to NO 34 for 12 yards (26-A.Adams).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (8:34) 6-B.Johnson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (1:44) 6-B.Johnson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 79 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 11 for -10 yards (5-K.Alexander).