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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:01) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 44 for no gain (54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.66 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model