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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 4-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to TB 28, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 31 for 3 yards (53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.10 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model