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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – New Orleans Saints 23

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 8-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NO 22, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-D.Harris to NO 34 for 12 yards (26-A.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.20 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model