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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 5

New Orleans Saints 26 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 6-B.Johnson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model