Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

(:27) 4-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to TB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 19 for 11 yards (17-K.White).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model