Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 79

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – New Orleans Saints 36

(:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 11 for -10 yards (5-K.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.30 EP
58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -0.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model