4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
PHI Away

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Rich Bisaccia
Sunday 2021-10-24 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

PHI
43.3%
LV
56.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.146 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • PHI on 3 more days rest than LV

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24
–
LV 27
Projected margin: LV by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

PHI

Jack Anderson G Questionable Hamstring
Anthony Harris S Questionable Hands

LV

Nick Bowers TE Out Neck
Quinton Jefferson DT Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Darren Waller TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 22
–
LV 33

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:08 TD PHI (11:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 14-K.Gainwell for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – LV 0
  • Q2 11:20 TD LV (11:20) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 87-F.Moreau for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – LV 6
  • Q2 01:45 TD LV (1:45) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – LV 13
  • Q2 00:07 FG LV (:07) 2-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. PHI 7 – LV 17
  • Q3 11:52 TD LV (11:52) 23-K.Drake right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-75-B.Parker was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PHI 7 – LV 23
  • Q3 06:18 TD LV (6:18) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 89-B.Edwards for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – LV 30
  • Q4 11:41 TD PHI (11:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – LV 30
  • Q4 07:22 FG LV (7:22) 2-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. PHI 14 – LV 33
  • Q4 03:58 TD PHI (3:58) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 18-J.Reagor for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-52-D.Perryman was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PHI 20 – LV 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 13 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:01) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to LV 28, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:26) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 35 for 1 yard (77-Q.Jefferson; 90-J.Hankins).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 36%

    (6:11) 8-A.Siposs punts 45 yards to LV 4, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (:07) 2-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 20 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:12) 8-A.Siposs punts 52 yards to LV 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-H.Renfrow to 50 for 15 yards (19-J.Arcega-Whiteside). PHI-19-J.Arcega-Whiteside was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (6:18) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 89-B.Edwards for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 83%

    (4:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 88-D.Goedert to LV 7 for 21 yards (29-C.Hayward).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:22) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to PHI 35, Center-47-T.Sieg. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at PHI 41 for 6 yards (45-A.Ingold).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 91%

    (7:22) 2-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 49%

    (2:15) 6-A.Cole punts 35 yards to PHI 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-7-Z.Jones.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right [77-Q.Jefferson].