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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 8-A.Siposs punts 45 yards to LV 4, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.41 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model