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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 21

Las Vegas Raiders 30 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 2-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.43 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP