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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 28

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 30

What Actually Happened

(4:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 88-D.Goedert to LV 7 for 21 yards (29-C.Hayward).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.80 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP