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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 22 – Las Vegas Raiders 33

What Actually Happened

(:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right [77-Q.Jefferson].

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.03 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -1.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model