4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 10

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(:07) 2-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.22 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model