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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 35 for 1 yard (77-Q.Jefferson; 90-J.Hankins).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model