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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2021-10-24 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NYJ
28.7%
NE
71.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.231 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Mac Jones (NE) -0.002 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.268 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ on 7 more days rest than NE
  • NE offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 19
–
NE 26
Projected margin: NE by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NYJ

Tyler Kroft TE Out Back
C.J. Mosley LB Doubtful Hamstring
Tevin Coleman RB Questionable Hamstring

NE

Jonathan Jones CB Out Shoulder
Shaun Wade CB Out Concussion
Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Finger
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Elbow
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Shoulder
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Ribs
Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Thigh
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Knee
Nick Folk K Questionable left Knee
Brandon King LB Questionable Thigh
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Abdomen
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Hamstring
Adrian Phillips S Questionable Back
Josh Uche LB Questionable Shoulder
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Groin
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 13
–
NE 54

Prediction missed by 34 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:49 TD NE (12:49) (Shotgun) 84-K.Bourne pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. backward pass from NE 10-Jones to NE 84-Bourne NYJ 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 07:24 TD NE (7:24) 37-D.Harris left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – NE 13
  • Q2 14:14 FG NE (14:14) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 300th career FG, 35th all-time to reach that milestone. NYJ 0 – NE 17
  • Q2 10:45 TD NYJ (10:45) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – NE 17
  • Q2 05:37 TD NE (5:37) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-B.Bolden for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – NE 23
  • Q2 00:31 TD NE (:31) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 85-Henry 4th straight game with a rec TD, longest streak by a Patriots TE since Gronkowski, 2013 NYJ 7 – NE 30
  • Q3 11:46 TD NYJ (11:46) (Shotgun) 8-E.Moore right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Reverse NYJ 13 – NE 31
  • Q3 07:08 FG NE (7:08) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NYJ 13 – NE 34
  • Q4 13:33 TD NE (13:33) 75-J.Herron reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – NE 40
  • Q4 09:13 TD NE (9:13) 75-J.Herron reported in as eligible. 42-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – NE 47
  • Q4 03:02 TD NE (3:02) 42-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – NE 53

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:56) 4-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to NE 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 47 for 17 yards (46-N.Dawkins).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 80%

    (1:53) 6-M.Ammendola 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (14:14) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 300th career FG, 35th all-time to reach that milestone.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 83%

    (2:00) 25-T.Johnson up the middle to NE 28 for no gain (90-C.Barmore).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 70%

    (1:10) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 16-J.Meyers ran ob at NYJ 32 for 3 yards (30-M.Carter II).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 13 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 76%

    (7:08) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 27%

    (2:11) 7-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. PENALTY on NE-36-B.King, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 18.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 41%

    (11:19) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 85-T.Wesco (91-D.Wise).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:53) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NE 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 22 for 13 yards (25-T.Johnson).