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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 60

New York Jets 13 – New England Patriots 47

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NE 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 22 for 13 yards (25-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.11 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 19, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model