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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 79

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 4-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to NE 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 47 for 17 yards (46-N.Dawkins).

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model